A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
